Ten years after the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that divided the nation and unleashed turmoil, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly contentious and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support very quickly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Intends to Stir Debate
The duo have studied the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim this point is imminent, and a group called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but very few government figures or campaigners are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, neither author endorses unification or the current situation. Each writes two essays that aim for neutrality in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the argument against, assembling financial and societal statistics, past examples and constitutional models.
Debates encompass flags and symbols, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and provoke conversation.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters report they support unity but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government must determine what the offer from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist considers a national vote in his generation is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a poor or a feckless government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified points, he stated. "One side will succeed in this matter and somebody will eventually be defeated but all factions has possesses important lessons to learn from the alternative viewpoints."
Appeal for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster must participate in the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This is about your state. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."
