The Astonishing Rich Vein of Form Fuels Villa's Improbable Title Charge

A mere 60 days ago when the Villa attacker found himself on the pitch at Sunderland, appearing bewildered as the Villa manager berated him over not reading a pass in behind. Back then, as the club endured a six-game winless run, it wasn't clear if his displays were a sign or a cause for Villa's wider issues.

“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”

A Touchline Reaction of Elation

On Sunday, in contrast, the sideline response was entirely far more favourable. After the in-form star curled home his second strike to reclaim Villa's lead, Emery ripped off his coat, threw his arms wide and bellowed. The team continued to a tenth straight victory , having failed to win any of their first six fixtures, are somehow just three points off the leaders Arsenal.

Is Aston Villa Legitimate Title Contenders?

This is a rather hard proposition to address. The historical record, a general sense of the club, argues against it. Moreover, they have not been wholly dominant this season, despite the fact the victories have piled up.

Per the data, twice all season has the side had an xG significantly higher than the other team. For a team who have strung together 10 in a row, they seem weirdly vulnerable – yet right now the fine lines are going in their favour.

The Rogers Recipe

The current approach seems to be to trade blows with rivals and wait for Rogers to bail them out with a couple of crisp finishes. It happened away to Leeds, it happened at West Ham, and again when facing United.

His opener stemmed from a superb shot, curled just inside the post from a wide position. The follow-up goal proved to be a slight scruffier version of goal number one as he pounced on a setup by his strike partner.

“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”

An Unstoppable Force

Is It Sustainable?

Logic says not. Against United, the opponents registered a greater number of attempts and more efforts on goal. Villa have won each of their last eight by a single goal. The defence has been breached in all except one of those games.

A statistical correction could be the most significant challenge the club must confront in the near future. Rogers, almost certainly, cannot keep on drilling the football into the net's top corner week in, week out.

A Case for Belief

Could it be an alternative path in which, instead of results trending towards performances, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Important figures might still return to peak condition.

  • The centre-forward could start scoring again.
  • Jadon Sancho might become the performer he was in Germany.
  • The defensive duo will eventually come back from the treatment room, fortifying an occasionally vulnerable defensive unit.

Perhaps there is in that the possibility of a title challenge, yet it seems unlikely cannot keep relying on a single individual.

Enjoying the Ride

Yet, this is a surprise. Nobody thought Villa would be in a Champions League place in December. And certainly earlier this season, nobody thought the midfielder by the end of the year would be at the forefront of a title charge and appearing as a crucial Three Lions star.

The current run is to be savoured for the very reason that it seems so surreal. As Rogers positioned himself before the North End at the final whistle leading the celebrations, he seemed to be loving the experience. A feeling he has rightly earned. These spells do not happen often and must be appreciated.

Lisa Medina
Lisa Medina

A data scientist with over 8 years of experience in predictive modeling and machine learning applications for business optimization.